Hugh Reynolds: After the primary

The columnist Reynolds.

Contrary to rumor in some Democratic circles, Graff was registered as an independent (not enrolled in a party) before signing up as a Democrat last year. She was not (gasp!) a Republican. After securing the endorsement of the county Democratic committee at convention last month, Graff will face life-long Democrat Sara McGinty in the September judicial primary.

I’m guessing McGinty was blind-sided at the party’s unofficial nominating convention party last month, one dominated by unfamiliar young faces. She won’t make that mistake again.

 How about them polls?

By the time voting booths closed on the primary last week, polls announced only the day before were already out of date, off by as much as 10 points. That may say something about the science — or is it an art? — of polling and its impact on elections.

Two weeks before the primary, the generally respected and widely quoted Time Warner News/Siena College poll had Teachout trouncing Yandik by 30 points. Siena pollsters like to track trends, which can be instructive, so the day before the primary, they reported her lead stretching to 39 points. She won by an unofficial 50 percent.

Faso’s campaign against Heaney produced a similar trend. Down by 22 initially, hapless Heaney sank to 30 while calling the Siena poll, released “literally a day before the primary,” “irresponsible and a grave disservice to the voters.” One can only wonder how Heaney might have reacted had the Siena poll showed him closing to the “margin of error” (usually around three points, plus or minus) on the eve of the election. Election night results approached 35 percent.

Siena pollster Steve Greenberg offered a measured response to Heaney’s charges.  “Sometimes campaigns behind in polls focus on attacking the pollster rather than trying to win votes,” he stated succinctly via email. “That’s their right, even if they’re wrong. We stand by our record, which has earned us one of the top ratings among all pollsters.”

As Heaney pointed out, that record also includes backassward calls of special elections last spring in Rochester and in a special Senate election in disgraced Dean Skelos’ former Long Island district. For Siena, occasionally picking the wrong winner is more the exception than the rule, and Greenberg never said his polls were perfect.

More to Heaney’s point was the timing of Siena’s last poll, which Greenberg did not address.

One needn’t be a professional pollster to appreciate that except for zealots, campaign staffers and relatives of candidates, many people if they’re planning to vote at all don’t begin seriously to consider their choices until maybe a week or two before an election. I dare say some make up their minds the day of or even as they enter the booth.

Ergo, a poll publicized during that crucial period, which is meant to inform but not necessarily to influence, can have an impact. Obviously in this primary, what with double-digit leads stretching to the horizon, it didn’t matter. But suppose the margin of error had been in play?

Some voters — I hope they’re a micro-minority — like to ride a perceived winner. “I wasted my vote” (on a loser) is a common lament. Some, who might be inclined to forsake the couch for a favored candidate, might stay put if polls show their candidate a mortal lock. “I didn’t think you needed my vote” is another familiar post-mortem.

I’m not about to tell private-sector pollsters how to run their shops, but election-eve polls that could swing elections might be reconsidered.