Hugh Reynolds: New sheriff in town

For sure, public hearings will be piously offered around the state and this one and that will have a say.

The hottest topic of speculation — the so-called “63rd Senate district” or “the new Senate district” (in fact, they’re all new to some extent)  — meanders from Montgomery County west of Albany to suburbs of Albany County, all of Greene County, then downriver to include Kingston. From our perspective, a northwestern district, it includes nine Ulster County towns: Saugerties, Woodstock, the Town of Ulster and the Town of Kingston, Esopus, Hurley, Marbletown and Lloyd, roughly 93,000 people in a district of about 295,000. With roughly a third of the proposed five-county district’s population, Ulster could be a contender for a resident state senator. That hasn’t happened since 1957, with the retirement of Sen. Arthur Wicks, R-Kingston.

This is no small thing, as resident representatives Maurice Hinchey and Kevin Cahill have demonstrated for decades.

It would appear, to the surprise of some, this new district favors Democrats, despite being drawn by a Republican majority in the senate. Our crack research team determined that Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 15,000 registrants. Obama carried the area by almost nine points in 2008.

Early speculation on would-be candidates centers on two-term Republican Assemblyman George Amadore of Rotterdam. Scion of a wealthy home-builder family, Amadore spent over $500,000 to win election in a special runoff in 2007. Former state Sen. Hugh Farley of Niskayuna could be in the mix. There’s been talk of Assemblyman Pete Lopez, whose district includes Saugerties, but Lopez doesn’t live in the new proposed district. Minor tweaking of the lines could bring in parts of his home county of Schoharie, making him eligible.

As Town of Ulster Supervisor Jim Quigley — Ol’ Deep Pockets — gets included in every discussion, I can’t leave him out of this one. Quigley, too has been reading the early reapportionment runs, and says he’s curious. Translation: He hasn’t done any polling yet.

Despite some attractive demographics, Democratic pickings seem lean. Assemblyman Kevin Cahill is the highest profile in the would-district, but doesn’t seem inclined to vacate a safe seat and the influence it took years to secure. County legislators of various stripes will float trial balloons but had better be prepared to raise substantial sums. Ulster Legislator Pete Loughran comes to mind as some outlander’s local campaign coordinator. Former Legislature Chairman Dave Donaldson is no doubt dusting off his resume, as are others.

Overall, Republicans hold a 32-30 majority in a state where Democrats command a 5-3 advantage. Their dilemma in the simplest terms comes down to: how does one keep half (plus one) when they only have a third?

Then there’s Cuomo, casting aspersions on this plan and vowing he will veto any plan that has boundary lines shooting off in all directions in favor of incumbents. With an almost 2-1 majority, assembly Democrats under the iron rule of Speaker Sheldon Silver, can override any veto? Republicans would be hard-pressed to conjure up the 41 votes (including nine Democrats) for an override.

So I guess the question du jour is, if a Cuomo veto negates a legislative reapportionment plan, and with time running out, what then?

My guess is, the “three men in a room” will settle on something long before that. To paraphrase an office sage, for Republicans, the task of retaining their majority will go from impossible to very hard, which is to say, a fighting chance. Given the circumstances, they really couldn’t ask for more.